Den Beste has been thinking about nukes lately. At the bottom he links a whole host of responses which can be lumped into two basic groups, “You’re damn right Steve” and “Den Beste is a jingoistic extremist.” It’s no secret that I’m rather a fan of Den Beste’s writing, and I do think this latest piece is an interesting hypothetical in a Jacksonian policy framework, but I think he uncharacteristically misses possible outcomes due to the law of unintended consequences.

If, say, a group of Islamic terrorists managed to detonate a nuclear device in a major American city, I do think we’d probably strike back with nukes. I agree that we’d probably hit Mecca, Tehran, Medina, or any number of other major middle-eastern cities in some nation run by theocrats. I can’t even say that I’d think such a reaction would be unjustified, and I’d probably support it. Also like Den Beste, I sincerely hope it never comes to that. Such an outcome would be a tragedy such that mankind has never seen, and a truly horrible thing. I also think it would be worse than Den Beste seems to suggest.

Why? Because the MAD doctrine went out with the USSR. Now, the Soviet Union may have been run by some severely deranged tyrants over the years, but at least they had enough sense to understand self-preservation. Furthermore, we pretty much knew who had The Bomb. Things are a little different now. North Korea has nukes, they probably couldn’t hit us with them at this point, but they’ve got them. And the DPRK is run by a man who could fairly be categorized as “unstable” to put it politely. It’s also a certainty that Kim Jong Il could obtain the capability to strike the US without a terrible amount of difficulty. [Note: I am not going to make an argument for invasion of NK] China already has the ability to hit us with nukes, and they’re not exactly friends. They’re not openly hostile, most of the time, but they could pose a threat under the right set of circumstances. Iran is working on a nuclear program, and God only knows where half the stuff from the Soviet Era wound up. Rusting in the Balkans, in the hands of [generic “rogue nation”/enemy state] who knows?

The point is that a US strike with nuclear weapons probably won’t be the last because there are any number of other states who have the capability. A nuke goes off in Boston. We strike Medina, Iran strikes Israel. Israel then strikes back at Iran. Pakistan takes offense at this, decides to get in on the game, and fires at India to settle an old score now that the genie has gotten out. Also, they fire back at Israel. India doesn’t like this and decides to hit Pakistan. Then China might decide it doesn’t like this whole “nuclear war” thing, especially so close to home in India, and fires at the US because we’re the ones who launched the first missile, they might also fire at Japan. We fire at China while their missiles are on their way here, &c. All of that happens while North Korea is debating whether to hit Seoul or Tokyo first. It’s a lot like a Cold-War scenario, except now there are many more players in the game and some of them either don’t know or don’t care about the possibility of becoming the newest residents of a glowing, irradiated wasteland.

ADDENDUM: To be clear, I do think that in the [rather unlikely at this point] event of a nuclear strike on American soil by Islamic Terrorists launching our own missiles is probably what will happen. And, even given my above description of the likely consequences, doing so would be the most expedient way to eliminate the threat. Furthermore, it might be the best alternative in the situation: Our choices will be thus, “let them keep coming at us which will most certainly lead to our demise” or, “nuke them back and hope for the best, which will probably lead to our demise.” Probable death is better than certain death, after all. This position not only demonstrates American willingness to go to any extent needed to defend itself, but also the American willingness to make sure its enemies are destroyed in the event that they manage to bring down America. A sort of “see you in hell” mentality. None of this is pleasant, nor is it pretty, and here’s hoping to God that we can end this long before it ever gets to that point.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, December 3rd, 2003 at 22:19 by Timothy and is filed under Miscellaneous. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.