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Statistical Evidence

I’ve been reading lately, and I thought I should point out something particularly interesting and rather insane. Nate Silver, after successfully predicting Obama’s win, has followed through on his promise to try to predict senate races. While the model is solid for the moment it’s important to remember that it’s long term accuracy is admittedly shaky, even by it’s creators.

In any case, the exercise is pretty cool and if it all goes to pot then at least it will be funny. Here’s what the top 15 races look like for the month of August.


Of course, if somehow the world cruises along at it’s current pace and the model holds, then we will have another amazing prediction from Nate Silver and his buddies. In case you don’t know who Mr. Silver is by now, he’s the guy who predicted the winners of the Oscars and the presidential election within fractions of their actual outcomes. Oh yeah, and this.

Kudos to Dracobly for this one.

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